The war is not over

Several weeks ago I tweeted a link to one of the recent articles of Yulia Latinina entitled "From South Ossetia to the war in Georgia", where she warned that a new war in the Caucasus might erupt again. If not her authority, some my followers would have expressed their disbelief and accused of paranoia. My reaction to such kind of warnings has not changed as I do believe that the war is not over and a probability of the escalation of the conflict has not gone entirely. However, the topic of protracting conflicts in the South Caucasus have almost disappeared from the agenda of major European security forums. The last time it has been thoroughly discussed behind the closed doors (off-the-record) was in Tallinn at the Lennart Meri Conference in 2009.

It took a bit more than a year for experts and researcher to start talking about "Georgia fatigue" and a precarious situation in the South Caucasus has gradually slipped out of the agenda of most of the European capitals and institutions. The EU Monitoring Mission (EUMM) deployed in Georgia right after the war in August 2008 provided so needed safety net, but nobody really wanted to push hard on the implementation of Medvedev-Sarkozy peace plan.





Here I'd like to present my one year old thoughts on the growing militarisation of the region and a European (non)response.

Georgia: “war” is floating in the air

February 2011

The Russian-Georgian war in 2008 had woken up European capitals causing an outcry and concern over resurgent and belligerent Russia. The phrase “no business as usual” became a keyword in relations between NATO and Russia but Europeans had been persistent in demanding of the implementation of the Sarkozy-Medvedev six-point peace plan. More than two years passed and the situation has dramatically changed. Georgia with its “little conflicts” slowly slipped away from the European agenda. Europe has started a modernisation dialogue with Russia. Meanwhile NATO is seeking more military cooperation with its former contender.

Russia’s military build-up in Abkhazia and South Ossetia seems to be a concern mainly for Georgia and its president. Russia has already deployed thousands of troops to these occupied territories having regular drills on the administrative border with Georgia. Besides that Russia has dislocated not only defensive anti-aircraft complex S-300 (in Abkhazia), but also such offensive complexes like Smerch multiple-launch rocket systems and Tactical Operational Missile Complex "Tochka-U” (in South Ossetia). A reaction of European countries to the gradual militarisation of the conflict region has been sluggish if any. Thus French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner commenting on the dislocation of S-300 complex to Abkhazia indicated that he “does not see any serious disturbance to the balance in the region”, but the recent deployment of the short-range tactical ballistic missile “Tochka-U” (defensive weaponry with operational range of 120 km) has been largely ignored by the European capitals. Georgia has unilaterally renounced the use of force in resolution of conflicts, but Russia has so far been avoiding making any pledges claiming that it is not a party to the conflict, which is in fact obvious. The word “war” is floating in the air, but Europe is snoozing again.

A resolution on the EU Strategy on the Black Sea Region adopted by the European Parliament early this year, called on High Rep Catherine Ashton “to step up efforts to encourage Russia to comply with the six-point Sarkozy Plan to stabilise and resolve the conflict in Georgia”[1] is a step forward, but it is not enough. In order to avoid escalation of the situation and de-militarise the conflict region, the EU should use all the leverages at its disposal.

Russia openly disregards the legally binding agreement signed by the French and Russian presidents, claiming that the situation in the region after August 12, 2008, has been changed. Despite that fact the EU and Russia has launched a Partnership for Modernisation aimed at the modernisation of the Russian economy and public service and intensified visa liberalisation procedure, but the man who brokered a cease-fire agreement – Nicolas Sarkozy – has blessed a selling of four amphibious assault command and power projection ships by French company to Russia.

It is obvious that for some European countries, if not for a major part, lucrative economic deals with such a big market like Russia trumps over security concerns of a little country in the South Caucasus. In 2009 Lithuania tried to block a resumption of the Russia-NATO dialogue, urging its partners to adopt a new strategy of NATO towards Russia, but a single voice has not been heard. Instead, the U.S. Secretary of State Hillary R. Clinton at the NATO Foreign Ministers meeting in Brussels in March 2009 proclaimed that time had come “for realism, as well as hope”[2]. It seems that we can only hope that the word “war” which is floating in the air will never be materialised.

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[1] European Parliament resolution of January 22, 2011 on an EU Strategy for the Black Sea, http://www.europarl.europa.eu

[2] New York Times, March 5, 2009, http://www.nytimes.com

Post Scriptum 

The EU Monitoring Mission is concerned about the current security situation close to the Abkhazia Administrative Boundary Line, and in particular the reported incident that took place on the morning of Sunday 4 March in Ganmukhuri. 

On being informed on Sunday that an incident had taken place, the EUMM sent several patrols to the area to gather information about what may have happened. So far, the details are not clear and the local reports are contradictory. The Mission will continue to work with those responsible for security on both sides of the ABL to look into this incident. 

Whatever may have occurred, the EUMM calls on all sides to show restraint and refrain from any words or actions that could be provocative. There has been a worrying increase in security related events in this area in the last three months, a point raised by the EUMM at previous Incident Prevention and Response Mechanism meetings. 

EU Monitoring Mission

05.03.2011