It has been a while since my last post in this blog due to the range of reasons, but mainly due to the lack of time to dig in, read a lot, travel, analyse and then put everything on this digital paper. I am of the opinion that any researcher should always has to have an up-to-date and even insider information, be constantly on the field (e.g. region/area of your research), and have enough analytical skills to make a thorough analysis of a given situation with ability to provide his/her readers with a forecast on how things might develop in the future.
My writings on world affairs, and particularly on the events unfolding in the South Caucasus, is a part of my hobby. Since I have always been a perfectionist, last year I decided to keep a low profile and take a break in order to understand whether I’d like to continue to keep myself in the field of research and analysis.
I am back again, but with a little disclaimer this time. Since I am not a full-time paid researcher and make my living in the sphere of event and project management, I cannot provide my reader with regularly published comprehensive analyses. What I can provide you with is only my thoughts and reflections on the events unfolding in Latvia and its neighbourhood. I am glad if you find some of them useful and even interesting to read, bud do not have high expectation and forgive me if you find some factual mistakes. In this case, I would be glad to read your comments.
I am back again, but with a little disclaimer this time. Since I am not a full-time paid researcher and make my living in the sphere of event and project management, I cannot provide my reader with regularly published comprehensive analyses. What I can provide you with is only my thoughts and reflections on the events unfolding in Latvia and its neighbourhood. I am glad if you find some of them useful and even interesting to read, bud do not have high expectation and forgive me if you find some factual mistakes. In this case, I would be glad to read your comments.
Instead of Introduction
The EU foreign policy or national foreign policies of its members states as you might say have always been a shaky balance between values and economic interests. A Slovenian case is just one more example that some form of corrosion is taking place in the form of greed:
Fellow EU countries have blamed Slovenia for denigrating the rights of political prisoners in Belarus in order to protect a business deal on a luxury hotel in Minsk. The country's foreign minister, Karl Erjavec, on Monday (27 February) in Brussels blocked the EU from adding the name of Belarus oligarch Yuriy Chizh to a new list of 21 jurists and policemen to be put under a visa ban and asset freeze. Diplomats from other EU countries say [Slovenian Foreign minister] Erjavec took the step to protect a business deal between Chizh and Slovenian firm Riko Group to build a five-star hotel for Swiss chain Kempinski in the Belarusian capital in 2013. EU Observer
The European Council on Foreign Relations in its recent annual assessment of Europe’s performance in dealing with the rest of the world tagged Latvia as a slacker in defending human rights and supporting the rule of law in the countries of Eastern neighbourhood. Here I tend to agree, but will not go into details. However, it is a very interesting topic to reflect upon – Latvian foreign policy: values vs. economic interests. Instead, I’d like to quote only one of the greatest statesmen of our region, Estonian president Toomas Hendrik Ilves, saying “the closer you get to home, the less attention we pay to human rights violations in our neighbourhood.”
Of course, we remember very well is what I used to call – when I could say these things – the „Olaf Palme school of human rights‟, which is that the concern for human rights violations is proportional to the distance from Stockholm, because nothing was said about Latvia or Estonia, but Chile, Cuba – Cuba not either – but anyway... The problem is that now Brussels has supplanted Stockholm, that is the attention paid to human rights violations justifiably in the case of Myanmar is very noble, but the closer you get to home, the less attention we pay to human rights violations in our neighbourhood. There the whole idea of stability, pragmatism and all of that comes into play. Toomas Hendrik Ilves, 2011
Without any doubts, we all want to live a happy and prosperous life, and in this Hobbesian world, it seems that it is even more than logical to do everything in achieving this goal. Yet here I’d like to quote Mr. Ilvess again:
“Values are the only framework and groundwork in this rather Hobbesian world we live in. To have some kind of framework – otherwise it‟s only raw power.”
For some (nations, people) EU is seen as a pole of attraction not because of the prosperity level we enjoy, but because of the values our nations are built upon. When we do not live up to them, they get disillusioned and take a bit more realistic approach (the case of Georgia) in conduction of their foreign policy. Some of them, like civil society activists in Azerbaijan, lose their faith in this European value project and blame our governments for the double standard approach and even hypocrisy.
I am not propagating the imposition of the values we have or the style of governance, because that would be too arrogant and would resemble so notorious Orientalist approach. However, I totally disagree that we should keep our mouth shut only because “we have invested quite heavily and also economically in the stability of a certain authoritarian regime” (what actually we should not do). Artificial stability might cause instability and I hope the Arab spring has been a waking up call for many of those who are responsible for making EU’s image abroad, including diplomats and officials of the member states.
January 2011
Erosion of freedom = corrosion of values
More than five years ago the President of Georgia, Mikheil Saakashvili, in
his open letter posted by the Washington
Post, called for the creation of an association of new democracies to „extend the reach of liberty in
the Black Sea region and throughout wider Europe”. He urged the international
community to increase a pressure on dictatorial regime in Belarus stressing
that “the world can do much more to aid the Belarusian people in their quest
for freedom.” Five years later the President of Georgia joined the company of the
leaders of “non-free” countries like Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in congratulating “the last dictator of Europe” Aleksandr
Lukashenko even before the official announcement of the election results. The
elections were condemned by European countries as undemocratic but the brutal
dispersal of a demonstration along with the imprisonment of presidential
candidates from the opposition led to the new sanctions against Belarus. The
era of romantic idealism has ended, the pragmatic realism is back. And we
should not be blaming Georgian leadership for supporting freedom oppression instead
first we should look at ourselves.
The recent change in Georgian approach towards Belarus and its
unchallenged leader has its own logic. Since Russia-Georgia war in August 2008
Lukashenko has been under constant pressure by the Russian leadership to
recognise the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. A dispatch from the U.S. Embassy in Tallinn
disclosed by the WikiLeaks showed us that in October 2009 Lukashenko had been
complaining to Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Paet that he might be forced to
recognise South Ossetia and Abkhazia in winter for a cheaper gas deal from
Russia. However, no recognition followed. The conflict over gas prices between
Russia and Belarus had reached its highest peak in June 2010 when Russia
started to reduce gas deliveries to Belarus requesting to pay out $ 187 million
debt. Belarus economy was saved by the President of Azerbaijan Ilkham Aliyev,
who within 24 hours lent $ 200 million. And again no recognition of South
Ossetia and Abkhazia followed. Having a territorial conflict with Armenia over
Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan has its own interest in non-recognition policy of
South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Georgia had nothing else to offer but to show its support to Lukashenko
and legitimize his “re-election”. This move caused an outcry among the civil society
activists from Central and Northern Europe but got a backlash. As one former Georgian
official commented in a private conversation: “Should we have criticised
Belarus for the violation of principles that many in the EU no longer stand to
support? We used to be the leading democracy promoter in the region and all we
got was a war that the EU only “condemned” and was “concerned” about. And why
should one expect irrationalism from us but reserving pragmatism for
themselves?!” The fourth wave of democratisation proclaimed by some scholars five
years ago is over; the pragmatic realism is back.
The recent report published by the Freedom House on the freedom in
the world says that “in a year of intensified
repression against human rights defenders and democratic activists by many of
the world’s most powerful authoritarian regimes, Freedom House found a
continued erosion of freedom worldwide, with setbacks in Latin America, Africa,
the former Soviet Union, and the Middle East.” This erosion of freedom and setbacks
in democracy indicate not only the diminishing influence of the West and its
political model, but also the fact that we have contributed to this erosion
themselves by supporting authoritarian regimes and overlooking violation of
human rights and basic freedoms if it is in our interests.
In their December article entitled “Lukashenko the
Looser”, Foreign Ministers of Sweden, Czech Republic, Germany and Poland lashed
out against Aleksandr Lukashenko claiming that there can be no
business-as-usual anymore between the EU and Belarus. The ministers stated that
“the European Union is founded on values of human rights, democracy and the
rule of the law. It will not stand indifferent to gross violations of these
values in its own part of the world. (…) The best test of our own values is
what we do on behalf of the powerless. Europe must not be mute.” Perhaps the
crucial phrase here is “in its own part of the world”. The EU is very much concerned
about violations of human rights in “its own corner” – Belarus, but is not so
much worried about similar violations in other post-Soviet countries of South
Caucasus and Central Asia.
The recent meetings of European Commission President Jose Manuel
Borroso with rulers of Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan known for their
bad human rights record clearly showed that Europeans have very pragmatic
approach towards the values the EU is founded upon when it concerns economic
interests like direct deliveries of fossil energy resources. By shaking hands
and making profitable economic deals with the leaders of these countries, top
EU officials and heads of the governments alleviate previous criticism on the
lack of the rule of law, violations of basic freedoms and human rights.
Moreover, such moves send a clear message to the civil society groups that EU’s
“democratic agenda” is just a tool to earn economic concessions. Current
leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia did exactly the same in previous years what
Aleksandr Lukashenko did last year. The election results have been rigged and
disproportional force used against peaceful demonstrators (2008 in Armenia,
2003, 2005 in Azerbaijan). But none of them faced sanctions and such criticism
from European leaders. Instead they are both welcomed at European capitals and
called friends by European leaders.
Armenian leadership openly disregards calls of the Parliamentary
Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) to release all political
prisoners (“all persons detained on seemingly artificial and politically
motivated charges” in the aftermath of the March 1-2, 2008 demonstrations), but
Azerbaijan mocks at the ruling of the European Court on Human Rights in a case
of a detained journalist Eynulla Fatullayev. However, it would be fair to
mention that all South Caucasian republics have issues of non-compliance with
the court rulings.
Up to now the EU has been engaged in a “sincere and very friendly
talk” over violations of human rights and basic freedoms setting no
preconditions in financial assistance and participation of the EU programmes. Instead,
back in 2008 the European Commission in the framework of the Eastern
Partnership programme proposed to have “exchanges of best practices and
dedicated workshops on such issues as electoral standards, regulation of the
media, the fight against corruption, transparent management of public goods and
civil service reform”.
Human rights, democracy and the rule of law are the core values of
the EU, being enshrined in its founding documents. Respect towards these core
values should be the basis of cooperation with the third countries especially
if a country has committed itself to uphold these values by joining respected
international treaties or organisations. No financial and technical assistance
should be given without any preconditions. The Eastern Partnership programme envisages
many “carrots” like deep and comprehensive free trade area, visa facilitation,
labour mobility etc. These “carrots” should have not only technical
preconditions but also political – guarantee of the rule of law, observance of
human rights and fundamental freedoms, free and fairs elections. These
political preconditions should be upheld by respective rhetoric and messages delivered
not only by EC/EU officials, but also by every leader, MP or civil servant of
the EU countries.
What kind of message do we send, when former Bulgarian Foreign Minister,
former OSCE Chairman Solomon Passy, who represents one of the EU countries, is
stating that “elections in Azerbaijan are like the elections in all European
countries”? Moreover, the comments given by
the representatives of the OSCE-led International Election Observation Mission on
the last parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan even sparked uproar among
Azerbaijani civil society groups. Nineteen non-profit organisations of
Azerbaijan appealed to PACE, OSCE, European Parliament and European civil society
organisations accusing international election observers by whitewashing
falsified elections.
In such case Mikhail Saakashvili was right to congratulate Lukashenko
with a “victory” according to the national interests of Georgia – to seek
support in non-recognition policy of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In highly
contested presidential elections in Georgia in 2008 European leaders did
absolutely the same. Despite the fact that the opposition pointed to the
numerous violations during the pre-election campaign and on the election day
itself (also reported by the International Elections Observation Mission (IEOM)
led by OSCE), European leaders rushed to congratulate Mikhail Saakashvili. The
IEOM preliminary report highlighted that while elections were “in essence
consistent with most OSCE and Council of Europe commitments and standards for
democratic elections, significant challenges were revealed.” Serious violations
of democratic electoral process were named as “challenges” listed in more than
10 pages.
Without any doubts Georgia made a tremendous progress in the
modernisation of the country, but the democratisation process is still lagging
behind – uneven human rights record, violations of freedom of assembly, police
violence, unbalanced media environment etc. Although it would be fair to say
that Georgia is doing far more better than its neighbours.
To have free and fair elections in Georgia that time was a “must”
for many Western countries. As Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Friedman
pointed in late December 2007, “Georgia’s strategic weight derives not
principally from its geography, important though that is, but from the example
Georgia can set as a thriving democracy, inspiring freedom throughout the
region and beyond”. Georgia was a part of the “freedom and democracy agenda” of
the West whose primarily aim was to exert influence over the whole region but
in a crucial moment the West failed to support Georgia.
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