Sunday, 22 February 2009

Russia's Pipeline Politics in the Baltic Sea - 2

Some thoughts/materials on the Nord Stream pipeline project:

Environmetnal concerns

Chemical and conventional ammunition in the Baltic Sea

Dumping zones and recommended risk areas for chemical warfare agents

At the end of World War II it was necessary to find a fast and economical way of disposal for the enormous quantities of no more required conventional and chemical ammunition from German and allied stocks. Usual methods of destruction like detonation, burning or even simple emptying soon emerged as very time-consuming and dangerous. Dumping at sea seemed to be the much more efficient and – concerning the general security – the less problematic solution attempt. Environmental aspects and the issue of protection of the sea were completely ignored at that time.

Details about type and amount of sea dumped conventional and chemical ammunition vary considerably. Trends indicate that the biggest part of conventional ammunition were dumped in the German coastal waters within the 12-nautical miles zone, while the both biggest dumping sites for chemical ammunition are located in the Skagerrak and the Bornholm Basin.

The amounts of dumped chemical ammunition and unfilled chemical warfare agents in the Baltic Sea amount to 42,000 to 65,000 tons based on first concrete assessments in which dumping actions of the former soviet republic – that archives are still inaccessible – are only partly taken into consideration. Based on unconfirmed press reports the soviet republic is supposed to have dumped more than 300,000 tons of chemical ammunition amongst other risky things into the Baltic Sea after 1947.
The planned Nord Stream pipeline along the seabed of the Baltic Sea worries MEPs for both environmental and geopolitical reasons. In a report adopted by 542 votes in favour, 60 against and 38 abstentions, the EP calls on Commission and Council to be more actively involved in evaluating the potential environmental impact of this gas pipeline. The report responds to two petitions by Polish and Lithuanian environmental associations who fear that the planned pipeline could harm marine eco-systems.

Russia's Pipeline Politics in the Baltic Sea - 1

Some thoughts/materials on the Nord Stream pipeline project:



Nord Stream is a gas pipeline to link Russia and the European Union via the
Baltic Sea. It will carry natural gas to supply both businesses and households.
The new pipeline will be an important factor of energy security in Europe.

This is the quote taken from the official web-site of the Nord Stream project. But is it really so that this pipeline project will ensure and contribute to the energy security of Europe?

Dr. Mikhail Korchemkin:

(Founder and managing director of East European Gas Analysis, a consulting company that specializes in cost-benefit and financial analysis of natural gas projects in the former Soviet Union)

Russia's gas export plans need to adjust to the new energy strategy of the EU

The European Commission has proposed a new energy package that can result in significantly lower growth of the EU gas imports. Any reduction of gas consumption in the EU will result in lower imports from Russia. South Stream and Nord Stream-2 were conceived as bypass projects without increasing export volumes of Russian gas. These projects are too risky under the new market conditions. If the EU fulfills just 25% of its goals, the first line of the Nord Stream project will not be needed. Nord Stream and South Stream projects require the construction of new feeding pipelines from Shtokman and Yamal. The transit cost of gas via Ukraine and Belarus is lower than the transmission cost of Nord Stream and South Stream (with feeding lines).

Excessive Pipeline Projects of Gazprom - 1

Every winter during the new round of gas conflict with Ukraine, some experts note that for secure supplies of Russian gas, the EU needs the Nord Stream and South Stream projects to be completed as soon as possible. A simple math can prove that this statement is incorrect:

In case of completion of the export projects of Gazprom, Ukraine will remain the most important gas transit partner of Russia. If all bypassing pipelines are fully loaded in case of another Russian-Ukrainian gas dispute in the future, Gazprom would still need to ship about 300 million cubic meters (mmcm) of gas daily to Europe via Ukraine. This is equal to the daily transit flow of early January 2009. Ukraine would siphon over 20 mmcm/day of transit gas in the first week of the conflict. Under the realistic scenario, the Ukrainian transit volume drops to 200 mmcm/day, but the siphoning increases slightly.

To provide secure supplies of gas to Europe, Gazprom would still need to use the underground gas storage facilities (UGSF) of Ukraine. Gazprom would have to have the Ukrainian UGSFs fully loaded - in case of a new conflict with Belarus or Poland, Gazprom would need to withdraw about 160 mmcm of gas daily.

The Nord Stream pipeline would allow Gazprom to turn off gas supplies to Belarus and Poland without affecting exports to other countries. Therefore, the worries of the Polish authorities about the negative effect of the Nord Stream project on the security of gas supply to Poland are well-grounded. There are no doubts that having a bypass pipeline in case of a political dispute, Russia would turn off gas flow to Poland. The Nord Stream and South Stream pipelines are designed as bypass pipelines without increasing Russian exports or improving the security of gas supply to Europe. On the contrary, these projects are designed to reduce the security of supply to Belarus and the EU member states of Germany, Poland, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece. Russia will be able to turn off the gas flow to any of these countries without decreasing other exports.

The excessive projects of Gazprom have to be paid by gas consumers of Russia, which would extend the period of the economic crisis in the country. During the previous crisis in 1998-1999, the nominal price of gas in rubles was frozen, while the real price has dropped by three-quarters. Additionally, the Russian government has devalued the nominal debt of Russian gas consumers to Gazprom by 40% (the real debt has dropped by over 80%). Gazprom has suffered losses for two years, but the low domestic price of gas has helped all other businesses to recover faster.

Construction of bypassing pipelines for political purposes is appropriate for a "Ministry for Foreign Energy relations", but not for a company that claims the priority of profit maximization

Nord Stream, South Stream hurt Czech energy security?

In January 2008 (the record month of January in the history of Russian gas exports), the daily transit flow of Russian gas through Czech Republic was 41 million cub m lower than in January 1999. Czech daily transit revenues were down $0.6 million. The Yamal-Europe pipeline has reduced the dependence of Russian gas exports on Ukraine, Slovakia and Czech Republic. Nevertheless, the experience of 2006-2009 shows the security of supply of gas to Eastern Europe has decreased. If the Nord Stream and South Stream pipelines are completed, the gas transit through Czech Republic can be reduced to zero. A complete cutoff of Russian gas exports to Czech Republic would have no effect on deliveries to other countries. The Nord Stream and South Stream pipelines increase political risks and reduce the security of gas supply to all countries of Eastern Europe.


Saturday, 21 February 2009

Political Eurovision

On February 19, 2009 Georgia has announced its entry at the Eurovision 2009 to be held in Moscow, a song performed by a group "Stephan & 3G" called "We Do Not Wanna Put IN".

The song uses a play on words against Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin:

We Don't Wanna Put In / The negative move, / It's killin' the groove," using a phrase that sounds like "We don't want Putin."



Ukraine Eurovision act Verka Serduchka in 2007 lost Russian music industry contracts after the song's chorus, "Russia Good Bye," was taken as an allusion to Ukraine's split from Russia in the 2004 Orange Revolution.



"Orange" song performed by GreenJolly "Razom nas bahato", Eurovision 2005



In 2006 Belarusian act Polina Smolova performed a song which praised the authoritarian country's ruler, Alexander Lukashenko, with the line "Say me no more that he's a finished liar, I feel so safe, 'cause I know he's good."



"It's a song contest and it's about uniting Europe, not dividing it. Uniting Europe in music - that was always the idea. Let's have fun together, basically," Jarmo Siim (Estonia), Communication and PR officer told EUobserver.

But are we witnessing the reverse of this trend?

EUObserver

Wednesday, 11 February 2009

What Obama Campaign Manager was doing in Baku?

As RFE/RL has revealed David Plouffe, who served as campaign manager for Barack Obama in the 2008 U.S. presidential election visited Baku on February 8-9, where he met President Ilham Aliyev, parliament speaker Oktay Asadov and delivered a speech at Baku's Gerb (Western) University.

Mr. Plouffe holds no U.S. government positions but controls the remnants of Mr. Obama's 2008 campaign organization, which he built and oversaw. Currently he is employed by AKPD Media and Messaging, a political-consulting firm that works for Democratic candidates and causes. The firm's founder is David Axelrod, who was the chief strategist on Obama's presidential campaign.


Plouffe was invited by the Association for Civil Society Development (ACSD) in Azerbaijan, which RFE describes as a “mouthpiece of the president’s office.”

What is ACDS?

As Kevin Silverstein from Harper's Magazine writes:

As for the ACDSA, its website reveals that the group’s projects include cheerleader-type programs like “Baku is a Hero City” (which reeks of Soviet nostalgia) as well as more explicitly political ones, such as election monitoring and polling. In a poll conducted a few years ago, according to a 2005 New Republic story, the ACDSA found that “only 5.9 percent of those surveyed voted for opposition candidate Isa Gambar” when he ran against Aliyev. Yet, the story said, “official statistics gave Gambar 12 percent of the vote, and some foreign observers said that he garnered as much as 40 percent.” Another poll from the ACDSA found that many Azeris believed there was no corruption in Azerbaijan, even through Transparency International has consistently rated it as one of the most corrupt countries in the world.

Or take the group’s exit polls for 2004 municipal elections, which found that 99.85 percent of voters felt no pressure while voting. Yet, as the New Republic noted, “the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) sponsored its own poll, with vastly different results. USAID states on its Azerbaijan website that the “municipal elections in December 2004 did not even meet the standard of the Presidential election [which were considered to be fraudulent].” And an international observer who monitored the elections didn’t recall seeing anyone from the group polling stations and “thinks the numbers were made up.”

Washinton lobbists

According to WSJ (February 10, 2009) Mr. Plouffe's appearance in Azerbaijan was arranged by a Washington-based lobbying firm called Bob Lawrence & Associates, according to records and interviews. The company lists Azerbaijan among its clients on its Web site. People with knowledge of the speech said the appearance was arranged by the Lawrence firm through Mr. Plouffe's agent, the Washington Speakers Bureau. A person answering the phone at the Lawrence firm said no one was available for comment. A spokesman for the Washington Speakers Bureau couldn't be reached.

The same group brought forty americans to praise elections in Azerbaijan in October 2008. Bob Lawrence himself is associated with Renessans Associates who brought Mitofsky group for exit-poll in 2005. And here is how Warren Mitofsky described his experience in Baku.

Local Media Barred From Plouffe Speech

RFE/RL. David Plouffe spoke to some 50 people at a university in Baku on February 9 in a meeting closed to the press. Journalists were told to leave the auditorium at Gerb (Western) University before Plouffe gave a speech on the 2008 U.S. presidential election and "the power of democracy."

But, after his speech, an RFE/RL reporter asked Plouffe whether he planned to raise human rights issues with President Aliyev."I'm here as a private citizen, so all I'm doing is talking about elections, and the Internet and democracy, and to talk about our [U.S.] election, and how great it was that so many people participated in it, and that's a lesson I think people can learn."

Run-up to Referendum

Plouffe's visit comes little more than a month before a referendum that seeks to remove the two-term limit on any individual serving in the office of president.Azerbaijani opposition figures say that if the referendum succeeds, Aliyev will become president for life, thus confirming the dynastic rule of the Aliyev family started by his father Heidar.They note the arrest on January 22 of Fakhreddin Abbasli, a senior official of the Musavat opposition party, which was planning a protest against the referendum. Other Azerbaijani activists say they have been intimidated and arrested when asking people to sign a petition against the referendum.Isa Qambar, the head of the opposition Musavat party, told RFE/RL that he doesn't know much about Plouffe's visit. "If he is here to meet the members of the government and to talk about the promotion of civil society, then it would be useful for him also to meet the representatives of the civil groups and political parties, too," Qambar said

What about the White House?

The U.S. Embassy in Baku confirmed Plouffe's trip. Embassy spokesman Terry Davidson told RFE/RL's Azerbaijani Service that "Plouffe is coming as a private citizen. The embassy is not in charge of his schedule."

A former U.S. oil executive who worked in Azerbaijan writes The Cable:

"This visit will be represented inside Azerbaijan as a sign of President Obama's personal support for Ilham Aliyev. ...The runup to this referendum has seen the government shut down Radio Liberty, VOA and BBC and also harassing/arresting/beating anyone who tries to campaign against it."


From the gaggle with Robert Gibbs (Obama's press secretary) aboard Air Force One:

Q: Robert, what is -- what is Plouffe doing in Azerbaijan? Is he representing the president in any way, the administration?

MR. GIBBS: No.
Q: What is he -- what's the --

MR. GIBBS: Plouffe is a private citizen in Azerbaijan. I honestly don't -- I don't have his itinerary.

Q: He's not carrying any message or anything, then?

MR. GIBBS: No, he's a private citizen.
Q: Is it weird -- does it send a curious message that he's going to visit one of the world's most famous dictators --

MR. GIBBS: I think what Plouffe is there primarily to do is speak. You'd have to ask David. I don't know.

Q: (Inaudible) -- send e-mails for the DNC, on behalf of the DNC and on behalf of Organizing for America. What's the (inaudible)?

MR. GIBBS: Well, I mean, again, he's a private citizen. He's not there at the behest of, and not delivering a message on behalf of, the president of the United States. If the president had a message for Azerbaijan, he'd pick up the phone. It's a longer flight and a shorter call.

Story of 50 000 USD

WSJ (February 9, 2009) After his visit to Baku, Mr. Plouffe said that he intends to give away the fee he received from a paid private speech he made Monday in the oil-rich but authoritarian nation of Azerbaijan.

The speech was arranged by lobbyists working with a group that has ties to the Azerbaijan government, according to people familiar with the matter. But a close associate of David Plouffe said he only learned of their involvement after he had already embarked for the Caspian Sea nation.

Mr. Plouffe now intends to donate his speaking fee, which the associate said is in the range of $50,000, to groups that advocate democratization in the turbulent post-Soviet states of the region around the Caspian and Caucasus mountain range. Mr. Plouffe also plans to share the contents of the speech with opposition groups.

Sunday, 8 February 2009

Post Haste: A Parable of Free Speech and State Power in Azerbaijan

"You're as slow as a snail!" said Leyla to the village postman. And it was true that he was not as young as he used to be. It was also true that he liked to stop for tea now and then on his rounds. And it was further true that if, by chance, he met an old acquaintance, they might exchange a few words as he delivered the day's bills, letters and other pieces of mail. But he was not as slow as a snail!
And because the village postman read the new laws from time to time, he found something quite useful in them. Being called as slow as a snail not only hurt his feelings, it insulted all of the country's letter carriers. To think that they might hire someone as slow as a snail! And it causedmoral damage to the postal service's professional reputation. Letters were delivered by proud government officials, not by snails. If people did not have faith in the post office, who knew what might happen next? They might complain about taxes. They might insult the police. Anarchy mightbe just around the corner.
The postman knew the country's laws, and obviously Leyla did not. So he took her to court. More accurately, and better still from his point of view, the entire Ministry took her to court. The Ministry's lawyers said that, in making these statements, she "groundlessly" insulted the Ministryand that her comparison of the country's postal service to snails was "not confirmed by official sources" and had caused moral damage to the "professional reputation" of the postal service. Leylawas quickly brought to trial, and everyone awaited the verdict.
A fable from Aesop? A tale of Soviet absurdity? A satire by Heinrich Boell?
None of these, but very nearly the story of Leyla Yunus, a human rights activist in Azerbaijan, whose trial starts on January 23, 2009 in Baku. And instead of saying the village postman was as slow as a snail, she compared the country's police force to those in Mexico and Nigeria. For voicingthat opinion in an interview published on a web site, she has been brought to court by Azerbaijan's Ministry of Internal Affairs. The Ministry of Internal Affairs alleges that Yunus' comparison had exactly the same effects as the fictional comparison of the postman and the snail. She stands accused, with the weight of the state against her. If judgement is brought against her, everyone in Azerbaijan will have to be careful what they say about the postman.

Available at: http://georgien.boell-net.de/download_de/Leyla_Yunus.pdf

Seven Peaks of Azerbaijan or Zero-Energy Resort


Bjarke Ingels Group (BIG) has released their master plan design for the island of Zira off the coast ofAzerbaijan. The island has an area of 1,000,000m square and will undergo a full revitalization to becomea zero-energy resort and entertainment city. The design is inspired by the seven peaks of Azerbaijan,which form the skyline view, which is visible from the capital of Baku. under this concept BIG hasdeveloped a sustainable urban development which uses the landscape of the country has a theme in itsrevitalization. Each mountain is a building in the development and conceived of as an entire eco-systemin itself. The island will use solar, wind and wave power to supply it with energy allowing it to operatecompletely off-grid with zero-energy efficiency. Unlike some of the extravagant development in themiddle east, this new development takes the particular climate of the area into account, hoping to pavethe way for future eco-conscious projects.
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